No, it’s not the presidential races.
But three key races are happening today that you might want to pay attention to. The results will say a lot but which direction the country is heading in, and who has the upper hand in next year’s presidential race.
The biggest is for governor of Kentucky. Incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear has the primary all to himself. He’ll be tough to beat, as he’s enjoying a 63% approval rating. But Kentucky is still very much a red state.
Former President Donald Trump endorsed attorney general Daniel Cameron. For a while, it looked like he had the undisputed upper hand. The GOP is eager enough as it is to get another black superstar in their midst.
But Kelly Knight Craft is giving Cameron a run for his money. She was the ambassador to the UN actually appointed by Trump, and is the more politically extreme of the two main candidates. It’s a rare moment when Trump decides to go with the more moderate one.
But Craft has been attacking Cameron on his supposed “soft” record, calling him an “establishment darling.”
She came out with a new ad criticizing Cameron for not opposing President Biden’s investigation on civil violations on behalf of the Louisville Metro Police, in the wake of the Breonna Taylor shooting incident. He largely remained mum even though he was attorney general. The ad states Cameron let President Biden “and his woke DOJ take over the Louisville Metro Police Department.”
Cameron has also advocated to change drug possession from a felony to a misdemeanor. In response, Craft again, has called him “woke”. Cameron shot back with a TV ad calling Craft desperate, while pointing to her failed attempts at winning Trump’s endorsement.
One recent poll had Cameron only up 6 points from Craft. And Florida Governor Ron DeSantis endorsed her last minute, creating a proxy war between him and Trump.
Craft would likely be the losing candidate, but she’s gotten some traction as the more conservative one. However, the most recent poll has her behind Cameron by 16 points, deflating the excite of the race.
Jacksonville, Florida’s largest city, has a big election going on as well.
It might be getting more liberal than southern Florida. They haven’t elected a Democrat for mayor since 2011. With Republican Francis Suarez having a foothold as Miami’s mayor, Democrats see the long, difficult road of getting Florida back through Jacksonville.
The early GOP frontrunner with high name rec got knocked out in the initial election after her husband received a number of favors from the city council. Daniel Davis was once a state representative and chamber of commerce head and is much less well known. But he was the second place finisher, although losing to the Democrat by 15 points.
The Democrat is former news anchor and cancer foundation head Donna Deegan. A poll a month ago had her at 50% to Davis’s 25%. But he’s closed the gap in the most recent one, as voters learn he’s a business friendly, no drama moderate Republican. Now they are only two points apart, making this race a pure tossup. If Deegan wins, Florida just might be competitive again.
And finally, in Philadelphia, it’s the Democrats vs. the hard left, Socialist Democrat.
Bussinessman Jim Brown got some early momentum. He operated a chain of supermarkets in the city, and made a few jabs at some key unions, making him, by comparison, the most conservative candidate in the race. He was gaining some momentum, but now sits at fifth place in the primary, after Dems went on the attack.
Helen Gym is a hard left councilwoman who wants to bring “transformative” (translation; radical) change to city hall. She’s opposed any cuts to the police budget, despite rising crime within the city. She’s been endorsed, surprise, surprise, by Bernie Sanders, AOC, and newly minted hard left Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson.
But the newest poll has her in fourth place.
Expect former city controller Rebecca Rynhart to win. She’s left but sidesteps the hard left position on crime while still appearing sympathetic enough to them. “We can’t go backwards to racist, unconstitutional practices, but we can’t have the current chaos.”
Rynhart is more known as an uncontroversial technocrat. But if Gym wins, she’ll continue this year’s trend of cities, rising in crime, choosing the more liberal option. Eric Adams in New York City might have been an outlier with his tough on crime approach. We will see.
So check out these races as they point to current trends. Will the big cities go right finally or will it be more of the same for the leadership? Will Florida become a swing state again? Stay tuned to the Jacksonville results to find out. And did Trump make a smart gamble endorsing a candidate who is less MAGA-ey than the alternative? Tonight’s results will test his strength as the presidential primary every draws near.
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