With less than two weeks to go before the Nov. 3 presidential election, we’re going to learn very soon how accurate all those national polls we’ve been seeing for the past six months actually are. Good luck finding one that projects a result other than Joe Biden moving furniture into the White House in January.
But here’s the problem with all the polls picking Biden to win and showing him with double-digit leads right now: The same thing happened in 2016, when Hillary Clinton was projected to waltz her way back to the place she called home for eight years in the ’90s.
Keep an eye on Trafalgar Group chief pollster Robert Cahaly. His polling in 2016 showed Donald Trump leading Clinton in many of the key battleground states, like Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania. States he needed to win four years ago, and he got three of the four to go his way. Cahaly has come out of his cave and given his projection for this election, and his data shows Trump garnering more than the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win a second term.
“I see the president winning with a minimum of high 270s and possibly going up significantly higher based on just how big this undercurrent is,” Cahaly told Fox News.
Where are the votes coming from that no other pollster sees? “What we’ve noticed is that these polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote, what [we] refer to as the shy Trump voter,” Cahaly said. “There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people that are for the president that they’re not interested in sharing their opinions so readily on the telephone. We’ve seen people be beat up, harassed, doxed, have their houses torn up because they expressed political opinions that are not in line with the politically correct establishment.”
That essentially is where at least one man paid to monitor these races very closely sees the difference lying. And he has the credibility of having been right once before.
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