Welcome to The Decision 2024! In today’s episode, “The Biz Doc” Tom Ellsworth and Amy Dangerfield dive deep into the latest Notre Dame polls, where Trump has been gaining surprising support among students, signaling a significant shift towards conservative values on campus.
The team also breaks down the key moments from the Vice Presidential debate on Tuesday and reviews the latest polls to assess whether any candidate has gained momentum.
To wrap things up, we’re also taking a look at an updated electoral map prediction for a Trump vs Harris showdown.
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Polling Data Overview
Recent polls reveal that Trump has taken the lead by up to four points, while Harris’s numbers remain stagnant. Trump’s support is particularly strong in college polling, an unexpected trend given traditionally liberal college campuses. For example, in a Notre Dame poll, Trump leads by two points.
The VP Debate & Campaign Fallout
Tim Walz made an appearance at a University of Michigan football game, where he was booed and appeared to make an offensive gesture to the crowd. In contrast, Trump received a warm welcome at the Georgia-Alabama game.
Following the incident, Harris’s campaign saw her adopt tougher border positions, signaling a possible shift in strategy. Analysts noted her increase in social media posts about the border and her pivot to Trump-like stances on certain policies.
Electoral Map Predictions
Pollster Atlas Intel revealed Trump’s growing strength in key battleground states, including North Carolina and Georgia. While Harris holds a slim lead in Nevada, the polling suggests Trump is either leading or neck-and-neck in many critical states.
Atlas Intel’s data shows Trump charging ahead in North Carolina, with signs of momentum building toward a potential Electoral College win for him.
Debate Performance & VP Candidates
In the vice-presidential debate, JD Vance outperformed Walz, with post-debate polling showing a decisive victory for Vance, with more than 60% of viewers favoring him. Walz’s demeanor and gaffes, particularly a comment about befriending school shooters, did not resonate well with viewers. Meanwhile, Vance appeared poised and “presidential,” reassuring voters about his role on the Trump ticket.
Electoral Projections & Final Analysis
VT Analytics currently predicts an 80% probability of Trump winning the Electoral College. They suggest that if Trump secures North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, his path to victory would be solid, with Kamala Harris having limited options for a comeback. Even with victories in states like Michigan and Nevada, the electoral math favors Trump unless Harris can secure a substantial shift in polling.
In the upcoming weeks, the focus will move to swing states such as Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The debate’s impact will become clearer as more data emerges, but current trends show Republican energy surging as the election nears.
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