Let’s start with what we all know. Trump’s poll numbers in the primary have been stronger than ever. A Morning Consult poll had Trump leading DeSantis with 58% to DeSantis’s 21%. The biggest gap yet.
A USA Today poll bears this out pretty closely. Trump is at a slightly lower 53%, but still above the magic 50%, meaning he’ll be tough to beat. DeSantis clocks in again at 21%. Before, national polls on average had Trump ahead of DeSantis by 10 to 15 points. Three polls in a row have the former president up at least 30% over DeSantis. This is clearly a trend.
Not horrible news for Mike Pence, who seems to be cementing his place as the strongest Trump alternative not named DeSantis. He’s only at 6%, but not awful considering the guy hasn’t announced yet, and he’s not considered an heir apparent.
Emerson College released a poll that spells even worse news for DeSantis. That one has Trump at 62% with DeSantis at his worse than ever 16%. A 46 point gap, which are DeSantis’s worst numbers in the entire history of the campaign. Pence isn’t far behind with 7%. He’s only 9 points behind DeSantis, within striking distance of second place. Don’t be surprised if there’s a bit of a musical chairs game for that silver spot in the coming months.
And Vivek Ramaswamy is hanging in there with 3%, in all three polls. There must be something in the water. Pay attention to the guy, he’s catching on. He’s been consistently ahead of Sen. Tim Scott and in two polls, he’s even tied with Nikki Haley. Don’t be shocked if he knocks Haley out of her third place perch, as she continues to throw up on herself with policy speeches that don’t actually give her position on policy.
Clearly, Trump’s social security attacks on Ron DeSantis are working. That doesn’t play well to older voters or those with a populist bend. And the GOP rallied around Trump in the wake of his arrest.
And shockingly, Trump is on par with Biden when you look at the Dem primary. Biden keeps sinking, he’s at 60% in the newest poll, with RFK Jr. at 19%.
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