To understand the 2020 Democratic and GOP primaries, it’s crucial to have an understanding of elections that went before.
If this gets traction, you’ll be getting these history retrospectives a few times a week, hope you enjoy them.
We’ll start by looking at the candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. He’s challening Joe Biden for the nomination and is currently polling at 19%. Not bad.
So let’s a take a look back on some of the candidates who have challenged a sitting president in their primary, which is often a most rare ocurence. A few have done so to varying degrees of success. None of have actually toppled a sitting incumbent president for the nomination, although Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson declined to run for another term after receiving a strong showing from their opponents in New Hampshire.
We’ll start with George Wallace. His runs for president in 1968 as an independent, and then 1972 and 1976 in the Democratic primaries are his most well known bids. But Wallace made a serious splash in way back in 1964, running against Lyndon Johnson.
The Civil Rights Acts of 1964 created a lot of bitterness within the Democratic Party. Previously representing the old south, Democrats often before Johnson were stridently anti civil rights. It was often the Republicans, think Nelson Rockefeller, who were more progressive on the issue.
George Wallace actually announced his candidacy a handful of days before John F. Kennedy got assassinated. But he continued the course despite the now obviously tougher slog he’d have to endure.
The first contest was Wisconsin. The Democratic governor stood in for Lyndon Johnson as a “favorite son” candidate. Back then, when primaries meant less and less states had them, incumbent presidents generally saw themselves above the campaigning fray. They’d enlist an ally to run in a specific state, and then they’d hand the won over delegates to the president by convention time.
Wallace shocked a lot of people by getting almost 34% of the vote.
Indiana came next. There was a heavy Klan base and again, if Wallace pulled some decent numbers, it would prove his brand has appeal outside of the deep south.
He campaigned hard, criss crossing the state and speaking before colleges and rallies. He generally received a positive reception, although at one stop a group of civil rights protestors sang “We Shall Overcome”, drowning out Wallace’s voice. You can take a look at him presenting at Ball State Teacher’s College in Indiana.
“I came to this state because I was concerned about the tendency of the growth towards centralized control over every phase and aspect of our lives.” That, as appealing as it might sound, was actually code for being pro segregation. Take a look for yourself:
He shocked observers getting 30% of the vote.
And next was the final showdown, Maryland, a bit closer to the south and thus could spell even better news for Wallace. He was pitted against Maryland Governor Daniel Brewster. The Johnson stand in campaigned hard for president, warning voters of Wallace’s dangers saying, “I have entered this primary to give voters a clear choice to vote for the forces of anarchy, or for the forces of law, order and decency.”
Wallace was hoping to do well on the Eastern Shore, the rural part of Maryland, where a riot from black citizens broke out. He showed up and was met with over 500 protestors. Still, it added for some great visuals and probably stengthened Wallace’s support amongst his base. The Baltimore Sun even said Wallace could win the state. If he did, he may have had the momentum to win others and stop Johnson from renomination at the convention.
Ultimately, Wallace got 43% of the vote, his best showing yet, but since he didn’t win, he shortly dropped out. Most of the primaries were over with anyway.
But it set a tone for the future and created the mass exodous of anti civil rights voters from the Democratic Party, allowing them to lose a key base, as unethical as that base was. Wallace ran and got 14% of the vote, winning 5 states. He cost Hubert Humphrey, the Democrat, the presidency and helped ignite Nixon’s “southern strategy”, where many southerners were taken into the GOP fold.
As RFK Jr. looks to challenge Biden, who knows what might happen. Might a good showing be the beginning of a mass exodus from the Democratic Party? Might too many Dems be turned off by covid restrictions and just join the Libertarian Party? This may be the start of something significant, and history reveals that.
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