While all eyes are on the GOP 2020 primary, some focus should be directed towards the Democratic primary. In fact, RFK Jr. is polling at roughly the same number that Ron DeSantis is at. And Trump and Biden have similar poll numbers are well. This means that both primaries are equally competitive.
Last week, we covered George Wallace’s 1964 challenge to Lyndon Johnson. It provided some insight as to what happens when a sitting president is actively running and gets an opponent. Wallace didn’t win, but he created a base for his historic 1968 independent run.
But what happens when a candidate runs so strong, they force the incumbent president out of the race? Who knows, Biden could reverse course if RFK Jr. continues to build momentum.
Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver pulled off the unthinkable in 1952, forcing Harry Truman to announce that he wouldn’t be running for re-election.
Kefauver is a sadly forgotten figure and was an anti establishment hero in the senate. He chaired the Committee To Investigate Organized Crime in Interstate Commerce, better known as the mafia trials. He created the committee and put tons of famous mob bosses on trial, and ultimately, in jail. He was also an early supporter of civil rights, quite rare for a southern Democrat at the time.
He was a popular figure and announced he’d be running in the New Hampshire primary. The establishment was shocked and offended. Never before had a president been challenged in his own party (Teddy Roosevelt sort of did so against William Howard Taft, but he didn’t really try to get the GOP nod before running as an independent).
But Truman was facing deep unpopularity. He entered the US into the Korean War, and there was no end in sight. After World War II, Americans were weary about sending their young people into battle again. He also poorly handled a major steel strike, it dragged on for months and the US lost a crucial part of their manufacturing economy.
He was sitting at an approval rating of 35%. Biden’s is at 42%. Not dramatically different.
Back then, a president wouldn’t actively campaign, but Kefauver certainly did. He ended up getting 55% of the vote to Truman’s 45%. This caused Truman to throw in the towel and announce he wouldn’t be running for re-election.
Kefauver ran hard, but back then, the primaries didn’t matter as much. The establishment was so enraged with Kefauver they drafted elite lapdog Governor Adlai Stevenson on the first day of the convention. He wasn’t even a candidate. But the mafia bosses and corporate bigwigs hated Kefauver so much, they leaped frogged over the millions of people who voted for him.
Who knows, does Biden bow out, does RFK Jr. get even more momentum? Will they just replace him with Kamala Harris if he earns the primary votes of disaffected Dems? Doubtful, but hey, super delegates are still a thing, so never say never.
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