It’s simple math and history.
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott officially announced his candidacy. While only polling at 1%, he gave a passionate speech that got a lot of positive media coverage. And he came off as well, a really nice guy. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis doesn’t, and neither does former President Donald Trump. That difference alone is getting him some attention.
Notice Trump’s response to Scott’s entry into the presidential fray. Let’s just say his approach is different to the one he’s taking with DeSantis.
On TruthSocial, Trump wrote, “Good luck to Senator Tim Scott in entering the Republican Presidential Primary Race. It is rapidly loading up with lots of people, and Tim is a big step up from Ron DeSanctimonious, who is totally unelectable. I got Opportunity Zones done with Tim, a big deal that has been highly successful. Good luck Tim!”
So why all this good will? It doesn’t seem terribly Trump like. Former Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney put it quite succinctly when speaking to Politico. “Trump isn’t going after Tim because he doesn’t consider him a threat.”
Trump should ignore Scott at his own peril. There is a scenario where Trump and DeSantis battle it out so much, and attack each other so viciously, that Scott remains the last guy standing. Scott is the likeable candidate. And he, for now, has that lane pretty much to himself.
Of course, that may very well work if this primary election were simply a three man race. But it’s not.
Former New Jersey Governor is expected to officially throw his hat in the ring this week. He’ll go hard on the attack against Trump. He sees an opening as most of the other candidates are too scared to hit the former president directly. Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson is trying, but his low key approach isn’t getting much traction.
On the genial side, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin released an ad comparing himself to Reagan and is telling donors he’s likely to run for president.
And Miami Mayor Francis Suarez is expected announce his candidacy next week. He’s never been a friend of DeSantis’s.
All these candidates are jumping in because they see blood in the water, which spells good news for Trump. DeSantis has faltered so badly that he’s no longer the de-facto anti-Trump candidate. It’s anybody’s race for second place.
Right now, Trump is polling above 50%, meaning his opposition vote is meaningless. But as the election wares on, if he slips below 50, he’ll need two opposition candidates in there to split the vote.
The common wisdom, however, is that all these candidates will drop out and endorse the strongest one running against Trump.
But that didn’t happen in 2016. Texas Senator Ted Cruz won Iowa. Ohio Governor John Kasich decided to stick around and won Ohio. Florida Senator Marco Rubio hung on for Super Tuesday and won Minnesota.
Trump got 35% in Ohio. He got 21% in the Minnesota primary. Had there only been one candidate, they would have beat Trump in those states. And those are just two examples. Had the race narrowed down to Trump v. Rubio or Trump V. Cruz, Trump might have lost. But egos are a powerful thing.
Expect the exact same thing to happen in 2024. These candidates won’t do as badly as you might think. They’ll see rises in the polls, build up in momentum, and will catch some fire as something fresh and new. But, well, that’s going to happen to at least four different people. If it just happened to one, they could take out Trump.
But there’s too much talent in the 2024 field, and because of that, Trump will win.
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