What if a billionaire bet $20 million on James Talarico to make his lead in the Texas Senate race look bigger? Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour explains what happens when big money tries to move the odds, and why markets correct themselves.
Mansour points to a real example from the Los Angeles mayor’s race, where a trader put a large sum on Spencer Pratt and pushed his odds sharply higher. Traders quickly spotted the mispricing and sold it back down, and the money was wasted. Unlike a commissioned poll that nobody corrects, an open market is constantly pulled back toward the truth by thousands of traders with skin in the game.
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Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal Bestseller “Your Next Five Moves” (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.
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