Democrats are worried about losing the 2024 election (especially the reelection bid of Joe Biden) due to a decline in support among Black voters, a crucial bloc for the Democratic Party.
Black voter turnout declined during the 2022 midterm elections, which many Democratic analysts interpreted as a bad warning sign for the future. But when The New York Times and Siena College released its recent poll on voter sentiments, the alarm bell started to ring.
The survey revealed that in a hypothetical matchup between Biden and Trump, 22 percent of Black voters said they would vote for Trump and 25 percent said they were only somewhat likely or not likely to vote. Furthermore, 39 percent of Black voters said they disapprove of Biden’s presidency.
This is highly significant because of how important support from Black voters has been for the Democratic Party’s success, both in national elections and at the local level. This has been especially true since the Voting Rights Act was passed in 1965, which made racial discrimination at voting booths illegal, and several other reforms passed during the Civil Rights movement by Democratic politicians.
As recently as 2020, 92 percent of Black voters chose Biden while only 8 percent went for Trump. About 91 percent voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
NEW: CNN is visibly shaken at how well Donald Trump is polling with minorities as Biden's approval rating continues to plummet.
The hosts were specifically shocked at how well Trump was polling with black voters, saying the numbers were "startling."
"Twenty-two percent of black… pic.twitter.com/agOdAlpl9L
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 7, 2023
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For Alicia Garza, one of the founders of the Black Lives Matter movement and the leader of voter mobilization group Black Futures Lab, the main worry isn’t that Black voters will vote for Trump. “The risk is that people stay home,” she said. “I think the problem is Black voters are consistently underinvested in” by nonprofit voting organization, she added.
The post-pandemic economic downturn has affected Black workers more than other Americans, with their yearly third-quarter wage increases shrinking from 10.3 percent in 2022 to 4.2 percent in 2023, compared with a nationwide slowing of 4.5 percent in 2023 compared to 6.9 percent in 2022.
Black voters such as Michelle Smith, a mother of three working two jobs in North Philadelphia interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, report that they are struggling to keep up with inflation.
“I really did think he was going to help people in my situation,” said 46-year-old Smith, who earns $12.50 an hour as a home health aide and delivers for Instacart on the side. “It’s like all of them talk a good game until they get elected.”
Smith added that she’s past the point of convincing. “I think I’m not going to vote, period,” she said.
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