Former First Lady Michelle Obama would receive more support among Democratic voters than President Biden if she ran in 2024, according to a new poll conducted by nonprofit think tank The Center Square and market research firm Noble Predictive Insights.
The study found that Democratic voters are prepared to re-elect Joe Biden for his second term in office unless Michelle Obama runs, in which case 48% of Democrats would prefer her while 36% would still most likely vote for Biden, with 16% being undecided.
Further insights from the poll show that Michelle Obama is preferred by women, voters younger than 55, moderate Democrats, childless voters, and voters with young children.
Besides Michelle Obama, most hypothetical Democratic fill-ins do not stand a chance. Democrats would prefer Biden to Kamala Harris (26%), California Governor Gavin Newsom (25%), Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (30%), former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (34%), former New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio (9%), Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar (10%), and declared primary candidates Kennedy Jr. (16%) and Marianne Williamson (9%).
Although he is strong against most contenders, the poll found that Biden is particularly weak among 18- to 34-year-olds, voters who think crime is “out of control,” and Democratic voters in the Southwest.
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The poll also found that most voters want Biden to debate the contenders, with 68% of Democrats desiring a debate compared to Republicans (62%) and Independents (62%). Voters who already support Biden are the most supportive of the current President engaging in debates. The study polled 2,500 eligible voters, including 1,000 Democrats, 1,000 Republicans, and 500 independents, to establish its figures.
Longtime Democratic Party operatives Douglas Schoen and Andrew Stein wrote an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal in May 2023 advocating for a Michelle Obama presidential run, noting her support among voters despite her reluctance to entertain the idea. The Democratic Party is also reluctant, seeing as the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has already decided that it will not hold any primary debates in 2024. Nevertheless, clever Democrats like Schoen and Stein have already been challenging this consensus, having written “we’ll be doing ourselves a disservice if we don’t consider a backup plan.”
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