After the vote to oust House Speaker Kevin McCarthy passed Tuesday afternoon, McCarthy confirmed to the press later Tuesday night that he would not be running to retake the position.

“I may have lost the vote today, but as I walk out of this chamber, I feel fortunate to serve the American people. I leave the speakership with a sense of pride and accomplishment, and yes, optimism,” McCarthy said. “I believe I can continue to fight — maybe in a different manner. I will not run for speaker again. I’ll have the conference pick somebody else.”

Only eight House Republicans backed the motion to vacate: Andy Biggs (AZ), Ken Buck (CO), Tim Burchett (TN), Eli Crane (AZ), Matt Gaetz (FL), Bob Good (VA), Nancy Mace (SC), and Matt Rosendale (MT). Meanwhile, every present House Democrat voted with them, for a narrow outcome of 216-210. McCarthy took a swipe at the dissenting GOP members led by Gaetz, saying “Unfortunately, 4 percent of our conference can join all the Democrats and dictate who could be the Republican speaker in this House.”

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McCarthy was immediately replaced with acting Speaker Patrick McHenry (R-NC). McHenry made use of his short sliver of opportunity by immediately demanding former Speaker Nancy Pelosi hand over a hideaway office usually reserved for Speakers that she was allowed to keep when she lost the seat. Pelosi responded that she was out of town attending the funeral of Sen. Dianne Feinstein in California.

This leaves the most powerful seat in the lower house of Congress wide open. Since Republicans have the majority of seats in the House of Representatives, the Speaker will in all likelihood be another Republican … but so far, no one has been formally named.

So which Congressional Representatives are in the running to succeed former Speaker McCarthy?

Strong Possibilities

1. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA)

Rep. Steve Scalise (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Connor Walcott, Staff Writer, VT.com: As the Number Two Republican in the House, Rep. Scalise is a natural contender for the speakership. Scalise previously served as the House Minority Whip for the Republican Party from 2019 to 2023. He also notably backed efforts to decertify the 2020 election in the contested states of Pennsylvania and Arizona, making him popular with the more radical wing of the party. Rep. Gaetz himself has floated Scalise for the position, stating “I think very highly of Steve Scalise” among other Republicans, according to Reuters. However, an ongoing cancer battle may lead him to remove himself from consideration. Additionally, as a McCarthy ally, Scalise voted against the former Speaker’s removal.

Shane Devine, Staff Writer, VT.com: The most likely pick is Scalise, the lawmaker who was shot by a radical Bernie Sanders supporter named James Hodgkinson in 2017 during a congress baseball game and received virtually universal support from the political class. Gaetz, who has become a kind of de-facto leader for the MAGA faction of the House, has gone on the record saying he would support him. Scalise is perceived to be halfway between the Trump and establishment camps, where he maintains a solidly conservative record and at the same time a palatable personality to political and media figures from all sides, and so I think he will be seen by a majority as a good fit for the negotiation-heavy role without the risk of becoming a sell-out.

2. House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH)

Rep. Jim Jordan (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Connor Walcott: Rep. Jordan occupies a popular position within the right wing as a founding member of the Freedom Caucus, the members of which delayed McCarthy’s initial appointment in January. Jordan is also a longtime friend and ally of former President Donald Trump, defending him during the “Russian Collusion” investigation, both impeachments, and the attempts to audit the 2020 election. As an established kingmaker within the party, Jordan’s endorsement would be a major boost to any candidate for Speaker should the congressman decide not to accept a nomination. Jordan also voted against McCarthy’s removal.

Shane Devine: The founding chairman of the Freedom Caucus in 2015 but little known outside of that, Jordan’s popularity has risen immensely since Trump was elected. He will definitely be preferred over Scalise by the Trump crowd, having stumped for the 45th president nearly every week of his term on Fox News, but he is also highly competent compared to other members of congress and seemingly tireless. He might gain support on perceived skill alone, but his firebrand approach might also scare off moderate House voters.

3. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN)

Rep. Tom Emmer (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

Connor Walcott: Third in line behind McCarthy and Scalise in the Republican Party, Rep. Emmer previously chaired the Republican National Committee from 2019 to 2023. Though not closely tied with the fringe groups of the party, Emmer has had a successful record of whipping votes on key Republican legislation, showing that the party is willing to rally around him. A Washington Post report from last week described how many Republicans are open to him assuming the speakership, believing he will better represent their priorities. Emmer voted against removing McCarthy.

Shane Devine: Emmer, who in Fall 2022 successfully won House majority whip, has said he has “no interest” in becoming Speaker. However, a recent Washington Post report started a rumor mill that the GOP favors him as a Speaker candidate. In response, Emmer doubled-down on his support for McCarthy and his lack of desire for his job. But that can change now that he is clear to break rank and step forward into the spotlight.

4. Andy Biggs (R-AZ)

Shane Devine: Biggs is a staunch immigration reform advocate. He was also among the few Republicans that voted to remove McCarthy. He already ran against McCarthy for the Speaker role in December 2022, arguing that he would more quickly end the residue of “Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s reign of Leftist extremism” than McCarthy could. He has billed himself as well to the right of McCarthy and the GOP establishment in general, so it’s not likely he will win out. But he has a good amount of approval among the GOP base, and for those looking to court them in light of upcoming elections he might be a clever opportunistic choice.

Wild Cards

Donald Trump

Connor Walcott: Though every person to hold the office of Speaker has been a sitting member of Congress, the Constitution does not list this as a requirement. Based on this technicality, Republicans like Reps. Troy Nehls and Greg Steube have suggested that former President Trump could take up the position.

Though likely to cause a massive uproar in the world of politics, the possibility remains that Trump could become Speaker, even if only temporarily until the 2024 election.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY)

Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Connor Walcott: As Republicans threw the House into disorder, Rep. Jeffries promised that “House Democrats will continue to put people over politics and work together in a bipartisan way to make life better for everyday Americans.” Positioning himself as a rational alternative to Republican chaos has led to speculation that Jeffries desires the speakership for himself. Though difficult in a Republican-majority House, the role of Democrats in ousting McCarthy could provide an opening. If appointed, Jeffries would be the first Black Speaker of the House in US History.

Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL)

Rep. Byron Donalds (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib)

Connor Walcott: A freshman member of the House, Rep. Donalds has already made a name as a strong conservative. Donalds is also a member of the Freedom Caucus. During the fourth of fifteen rounds of voting over McCarthy’s appointment in January, Donalds received enough votes from fellow members of Congress to deny McCarthy the victory. Like Jeffries, Donalds would be the first Black Speaker if appointed.

Shane Devine: Some have said Byron Donalds (NY), who was just elected in 2022, but he lacks experience and name recognition. He has Trump’s endorsement, and claims he intended to vote no on the spending bill that caused Gaetz to kick out McCarthy. But the fact that his excuse was that he was “absent” for it has not exactly inspired many. Matt Gaetz has made history by leading the first successful vote to oust a Speaker, and could continue to rise as a leadership figure. But people are highly skeptical of his personal life and the possibility of skeletons in his closet. That leaves us with Trump himself. Since technically anyone in the country can be appointed to the role of Speaker, some have suggested leading primary candidate Donald Trump should have it and Rep. Troy Nehls (R-TX) has even begun the vote. While that would be highly entertaining, it is also highly unlikely lawmakers would make use of this little-known loophole.

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