Former President Donald Trump holds a significant lead over President Joe Biden in five of the six battleground states exactly one year out from the 2024 presidential election, a new survey finds. Poll results released by the New York Times and Siena College on Sunday reveal that the Republican frontrunner edges out the incumbent president by between three and ten percentage points in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania—and most voters cited Biden’s advanced age a key factor.
The New York Times-Siena College survey conducted between October 22 and November 3 surveyed 3,662 registered voters about their preference in the hypothetical 2024 matchup. According to the results, Trump’s biggest advantage is in Nevada, where he leads by a whopping 10 points (52 percent to 41 percent). In Georgia, where he is currently facing election interference charges, Trump leads by six points, followed by five in Arizona and Michigan and four in Pennsylvania.
President Biden’s only swing state advantage was in Wisconsin, where he leads by two points (47 percent to 45 percent). All six of these states went to Biden in the 2020 election, though, in Georgia’s case, only by a narrow margin.
Overall, Biden trails Trump by a combined average of 44 to 48 percent. These results reinforce the outcome of a similar swing state poll conducted by Bloomberg News and Morning Consult last month, which reported widespread rejection of Biden’s economic agenda.
The numbers from the latest polls reflect a growing concern among voters that Biden’s advanced age is preventing him from being an effective leader. Just shy of 81, Biden is the oldest sitting president and presidential candidate in US history. Although Trump is a close second at 77, nearly three-quarters of poll respondents—including 54 percent of Biden supporters—said the current president is simply too old to hold office.
Other data from the survey show that two-thirds of the electorate thinks the country is headed in the wrong direction, and as a result, Biden is in freefall among key demographics. Black voters now show 22 percent support for Trump, a number unmatched by other Republicans in recent decades. Biden’s support among Hispanics is in the single digits, voters under 30 favor him by only one point, and his advantage with female voters has been offset by surging male support for Trump. As the survey notes, Biden falls further behind the more diverse a state is, leaving him ahead in only the Whitest state.
One Pennsylvania voter who supported Biden in 2020 told the New York Times that he is flipping his vote to Trump in the next election. “The world is falling apart under Biden,” said 53-year-old Spencer Weiss. “I would much rather see somebody that I feel can be a positive role-model leader for the country. But at least I think Trump has his wits about him.”