Former President Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over current President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 rematch, according to new polling data released on Tuesday. However, with voters on both sides of the aisle increasingly interested in options outside the two-party system, support for Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is increasing as well, making the 2024 race an even closer one.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted between Dec. 5 and 11 found that Donald Trump, the current Republican frontrunner, holds a marginal lead of 38 percent to Joe Biden’s 36 percent in a head-to-head matchup. The remaining 26 percent of the 4,411 likely voters surveyed were either unsure or favored another candidate.
Source: Reuters/Ipsos
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However, nearly 60 percent of respondents also reported some level of dissatisfaction with a Trump-Biden rematch and the two-party system more broadly.
As Reuters indicates, Biden’s age, his poor performance on the economy, and his policies on immigration and crime reduction have made voters wary of giving him a second term. These findings have been reflected across multiple polls in recent months.
Related: Swing State Voters Show Concern Over Biden’s Age
At the same time, Trump is facing four criminal trials and a civil fraud case, the outcome of which could possibly see him removed from the ballot. The survey also found that a conviction on these counts, ranging from mishandling classified documents to conspiring to overturn the 2020 election, could cost him significant support. 31 percent of poll takers indicated that they would seek a different candidate if Trump were found guilty.
Presented with two lackluster options, respondents reflected a great deal of apathy about the matchup, showing an uptick in support for alternative candidates.
Foremost among these alternatives is Robert F. Kennedy Jr, a one-time Democrat who launched an Independent run based on his own frustrations with the established parties. Since Kennedy announced his third-party campaign in October, polls have shown him pulling supporters from both Trump and Biden—though which base he draws from most heavily has varied from survey to survey.
According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll, Kennedy is currently more popular with Biden’s base. Trump’s two-point lead widens to five points when factoring Kennedy into the 2024 equation, for a final result of 36 percent for Trump, 31 percent for Biden, and 16 percent for Kennedy.
The poll also showed that Americans favor Trump’s handling of the economy 45 percent to 33 percent. On the subject of abortion, Biden held the clear advantage with 44 percent compared to Trump’s 29 percent. However, Trump won on the issues of crime and immigration, with these issues securing him 42 percent and 54 percent support respectively.
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