It was a night of mixed results for conservatives in Alberta on Monday as voters went to the polls.
The good news for them? They held their province’s legislative assembly, Canada’s version of the state house.
Learn the benefits of becoming a Valuetainment Member and subscribe today!
The bad news? The United Conservative Party lost 11 seats to the hard left New Democratic Party. They now have their slimmest majority in history.
The UCP has 49 seats while the NDP has 38.
Conservatives have Calgary to thank for their victory. Alberta has two very large cities, while the third biggest, Red Deer, has only 100,000 people. All eyes were focused on Calgary and Edmonton, both of which have almost a million people.
Edmonton completely went with the NDP, making it a lost cause for conservatives. Edmonton has always been known to have a more liberal bend.
Calgary had about half of their seats go with the Conservative blues. A few even flipped to their column. The oil producing city clearly spoke out against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s opposition to more pipelines in the province.
But Alberta Premier Danielle Smith (Canada’s equivalent to governor) may be on thin ice. She was hoping for her party to nab at least 60% of the seats. That didn’t happen, and she might be thrown out as party leader, and thus premier, because of it.
The results should have been stronger for the UCP. Conservatism in Canada is a real thing. Trudeau lost the popular vote in his last two elections, but won because of the riding system, similar to our electoral college. All the seats carved up around Toronto cinched his re-election bids.
And the largest share of conservative-minded voters live in Alberta. It should have been a slam dunk.
But Smith was caught between a rock and a hard place. She had never been elected by the people herself. She replaced Premier Jason Kenney after he resigned. He got blowback from both liberals and conservatives for his Covid lockdown policies. Some say he was too restrictive, while others said he didn’t go far enough.
And Smith was leading a fractured party. The Alberta Party formed before 2019 as a moderate alternative to the conservatives. They didn’t like the UCP’s “Take Back Alberta” slogan, saying it was too reminiscent of “Make America Great Again.” In 2019, the new party actually won a seat in parliament. They lost that one seat, but got 9% across the board in the popular vote. Their candidates took away some key, winnable seats from the UCP.
Still, Smith’s message did sell somewhat. She was clearly the more hard-lined conservative candidate. One idea that has caught fire was forcing drug users to receive treatment, even if it would be against their will.
In 2022, Alberta saw a 30% spike in fentanyl deaths. Proportionally, Canada has the highest drug overdose rates in North America.
British Columbia is much worse. They saw a 20% spike in ’22, but had almost three times as many people overdose on fentanyl.
Alberta has only 400,000 less people than British Columbia.
What’s the reason? A liberal, NDP government in B.C. with bleeding-heart, overly-compassionate policies.
Under previous Premier Rachel Notley, the overdose crisis exploded in her province after her election in 2015.
But while deaths were rising, the UCP took back power in 2019. Notley thought it would be a good idea to go up against Smith this year.
And she may not have made a poor decision. Leadership might throw out Smith, but Notley is most likely secure for at least making some gains.
Another problem for the UCP was the health minister. That’s a pretty prestigious cabinet post, but the guy still managed to lose his seat in parliament. Tyler Shandro caused controversy when he waited outside the house of a doctor and screamed at him as he entered his home with his wife and kids. The doctor posted a comment saying Shandro had a shady health supplement company that created a conflict of interest with his health minister post.
Shandro got the axe in a usually reliable conservative seat.
Still, there’s primarily good news for conservative Canadians.
Trudeau had plans to cut carbon emissions by 40% within the decade. Notley was on board with the plan. Smith? Completely opposed. That means that oil production in Alberta will go on uninterrupted.
And if there’s another China-lab created pandemic? Smith early on compared those vaccinated against Covid to followers of Hitler. It was a comment that certainly lost her some seats this election, but you can be sure of one thing. She won’t be locking down Alberta.
So now, Smith walks a tightrope. Appeal to the hard right activists in her party or the more moderate, country club Republican types?
She’ll probably just keep her attacks focused on Trudeau, and that’s a good thing.
Notley lives to fight another day, and for now, Smith does too. She did win after all.
Add comment