News outlet The Economist currently projects that former president Donald Trump has a 2 in 3 chance (66 percent) to win the election, according to its national forecast tool.
The forecast gathers data from several different states and national polls along with economic indicators to gauge which candidate will likely win each district. It runs over 10,000 simulated elections to determine who would win the electoral college.
Our new forecast model suggests that Donald Trump has a clear lead in America’s presidential election https://t.co/LRp5gJMNRW pic.twitter.com/o0pwq5wZGh
— The Economist (@TheEconomist) June 12, 2024
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As they point out, the head-to-head polls do not reflect the outcome of the election, as elections in the United States are not decided by popular vote.
They add that Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia are the key states to watch in upcoming election. “In 2016, Mr Trump carried five of the six; in 2020, Mr Biden won them all,” they write.
For Biden, Michigan is most important. For Trump, it’s Pennsylvania. Trump is projected to take Pennsylvania this time around with a 66 percent chance. Michigan and Wisconsin are considered undecided according to their margin of error, but they place Trump at a 60 percent and 63 percent chance of victory respectively.
Biden’s likelihood of victory has steadily decreased since mid-May, around the time when Trump’s hush money trial began to heat up. Trump’s popularity continues to perk up following his guilty conviction.
Shane Devine is a writer covering politics and business for VT and a regular guest on The Unusual Suspects. Follow Shane’s work here.
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