Welcome to The Decision 2024! In today’s episode, Tom Ellsworth and Amy Dangerfield dive into the biggest headlines, from Trump’s massive rally in the Democratic stronghold of California to reports of infighting between Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.
Our hosts also explore the PolyMarket betting odds, where Trump continues to widen his lead and break down the latest Wall Street Journal polls reflecting the top voter issues.
Finally, they review the latest battleground state polls and provide an updated electoral map prediction for a Trump vs. Harris showdown.
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Donald Trump’s recent rally in California saw a large turnout despite the state being firmly in Democratic control. In front of an audience of thousands, Trump secured endorsements from actor Dennis Quaid and the U.S. Border Patrol Union, which sided with the former president after becoming frustrated by the current border situation under Joe Biden.
Meanwhile, tensions are rising between the Biden and Kamala Harris camps. Reports suggest internal friction, particularly over Harris’s declining support among African-American and Hispanic male voters. Polling data indicates a notable shift in betting odds, with Trump leading by as much as 8.5% in some betting markets, a sign of potential trouble for Harris’s campaign.
The national polls reveal Trump pulling ahead of Harris by four percentage points, with a consistent upward trajectory. This is significant given that Democrats have historically won the popular vote but lost in the Electoral College in recent elections. Swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada are closely contested, but Trump seems to be holding a stronger lead in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, according to aggregate data from betting platforms.
A recent Wall Street Journal poll, which has a slight Democratic bias, still shows Trump gaining ground in several key areas, especially in economic issues, inflation, and immigration. Harris, on the other hand, retains dominance in women’s reproductive rights and healthcare but faces stiff competition on issues traditionally favorable to Democrats, such as standing up for American workers.
In Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, Trump appears to be leading or holding a narrow advantage. Voter turnout, especially in areas affected by natural disasters like North Carolina, will be crucial in determining the final outcome.
The latest projections indicate that Trump has a 75% chance of winning the Electoral College based on current polling and betting data. However, uncertainty remains, and the potential for last-minute surprises, including potential controversies around Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Tim Walz, could impact the election in the final weeks.
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