An average of betting odds shows Vice President Kamala Harris is now the front-runner to replace Joe Biden as the Democrat nominee for President. President Joe Biden officially suspended his campaign for reelection on Sunday, opening up the Democratic party nomination to an ambiguous process of choosing a new candidate after primary voting has ended. In a subsequent announcement, Biden endorsed Harris for the Democratic Party nomination.
My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best… pic.twitter.com/x8DnvuImJV
— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024
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This is the first time in US history that the winner of a major party presidential primary has suspended their campaign before the general election. According to Hans Noel, an associate professor at Georgetown University’s Department of Government, “There are not always [Democrat party] rules for things that aren’t likely to happen, like the leading candidate dropping out.” He indicated that in this event, delegates would not be bound to any particular candidate, but could lean towards a candidate that Biden preferred.
According to the Call For the 2024 Democratic National Convention, 4,516 delegates will choose the Democratic party’s nominee for the Presidential election. 749 of those are “automatic delegates” or superdelegates, who are not bound to support a candidate who won the vote in any state. Now that Biden has suspended his campaign, none of the delegates are bound by party bylaws to support any particular candidate.
According to betting odds, Vice President Kamala Harris is most likely to win over the delegates. The odds have Harris at a 63.6 percent chance to win, with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer coming in second with 7 percent, and Hillary Clinton coming in third at 6.8 percent. Clinton notably endorsed Harris shortly after Biden. California Governor Gavin Newsom comes in fourth at 6 percent, after previously being speculated as a front-runner.
Before being selected as Joe Biden’s running mate, Harris unsuccessfully ran for the Democrat party’s nomination in the 2020 presidential election. At the peak of her momentum in the summer of 2019, she polled at 20 percent. However, she lost momentum and eventually dropped out months before primary elections and caucuses began. According to an average among many polls, Harris currently has an approval rating of 38.6 percent.
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