AtlasIntel, the pollster credited with being the most accurate during the 2020 season, now projects that Donald Trump has a five-point lead over President Joe Biden.
The new poll, conducted between June 26th and 28th, puts Trump at 45.5%, Biden at 40.3%, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 10.3%. Some 0.8% are projected not to vote, 0.7% plan to vote for Cornel West, 0.5% for Jill Stein, and 2% said they “don’t know.” They polled 1,634 registered voters and believe they have a 2% margin of error.
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The respondent pool was 53.4% female and 46.6% male; 29% Democrat, 28.2% Republican, and 42.8% Independent; 68.1% White, 11.8% Black, 12.8% Hispanic, 2.7% Asian, 4.7% other; and 45.2% suburban, 32% urban, and 22.7% rural.
Of these respondents, 56.3% said they disapprove of Biden—just 39.7% approve. 50.2% say the current legal trials Trump faces are “political persecution,” while only 44.1% say they stem from a “genuine interest in apply the law.”
AtlasIntel’s National Poll had the most accurate polling track record in the 2020 presidential election, with an average error of 2.01 percentage points. Their final poll of 2020, putting Biden at 4.7+, is thought to have been the most accurate prediction of the popular vote.
According to a new CBS News poll, the number of Americans who believe Biden should drop out of the race has increased to nearly three quarters of the electorate, with members of the Democratic Party increasingly agreeing with the prospect. One June 9th, 35% of registered voters said Biden has the mental and cognitive health to serve as president, while 65% said he does not; on June 29th, after the debate on Thursday, just 27% say he does and 72% say he does not.
Just 28% of voters now say Biden should be running, compared to 37% in February.
Shane Devine is a writer covering politics and business for VT and a regular guest on The Unusual Suspects. Follow Shane’s work here.
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