Vladimir Putin is many things. One thing he is not is predictable. The ruthless, self-serving President of Russia has recently threatened that using nuclear weapons in his war with Ukraine was on the table, and Western leaders are taking that threat seriously.
They have put into overdrive efforts to detect any military moves the Russian military might be making that signal Putin has given the green light to use nukes, according to a story in Politico.
The added vigilance is prudent and a great idea, but here’s the problem. Anything intelligence agencies might detect could come too late. Russia’s military aircraft can drop smaller tactical nuclear weapons that would give off little to no warnings, unlike intercontinental ballistic missiles, which leave a trail of clues if they are being mobilized and used.
If Putin were to be so bold and arrogant as to let the world know he’s decided to go nuclear, that might be the only way the rest of the world would know in advance.
The story in Politico quoted unnamed security experts in the U.S. admitting they are watching Putin much more closely. They’ve cranked up the spying efforts in the air, space, and cyberspace. More satellite imagery is being utilized to detect tactical moves on the battlefield that could hint at a nuclear order.
Ever since Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February, he’s given veiled threats of potentially using nuclear bombs if he felt Russia was cornered or to change the course of the war. He’s probably feeling threatened now with Ukraine’s recent advances. One sign of that is his call for mobilization in Russia.
Putin took the threat to a new level last week when he added the line, “I’m not bluffing,” to his arsenal. The U.S. countered by warning him of what that would mean.
It’s a dangerous game of chess, with many lives at stake.
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