Statistician Nate Silver and podcast host Galen Druke both predicted on Wednesday that New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is currently the most likely candidate to lead the Democratic presidential ticket in 2028, citing her high favorability among Democrats and strong, fervent support within the party.
“I think there’s a lot of points in her favor at this very moment,” Druke said in a joint video published to Silver’s Substack. “In a Yale poll just out this week, [Ocasio-Cortez] has the highest net favorability rating of any of the Democrats that they asked about.”
“Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has broad appeal across the Democratic Party,” he continued. “I think equally important is the fact that she has very fervent support. I think a lot of people are gonna run in 2028 and it’s going to be a contest for attention and getting those sort of people who might be in your boat to turn out and stay with you through thick and thin.”
Their forecasts are based on recent polling data, such as a Yale University poll showing Ocasio-Cortez with the highest net favorability among potential contenders and broad appeal across different Democratic factions.
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Both Silver and Druke note her media savvy and the attention she garners, which could be advantageous in a crowded primary, though Silver expresses some uncertainty about whether she will ultimately run.
“I agree with everything,” said Silver, the founder of now-defunct polling group FiveThirtyEight. “She was going to be my first pick…Because of some of the polling; because she has this kind of progressive lane, probably not to herself; because she is younger and media savvy. I mean, look, in polls, if she were to try to primary Chuck Schumer, she is now ahead in those polls, and New York Democrats are actually a pretty moderate bloc.”
Meanwhile, actor and Democratic donor George Clooney has voiced support for Maryland Governor Wes Moore, highlighting his leadership qualities and response to recent crises.
“I think he is a guy that handled this tragedy in Baltimore beautifully,” Clooney said in reference to the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge last year. “He’s two tours of active duty in Afghanistan. He speaks sort of beautifully, he’s smart. He’s a proper leader.”
However, despite these points in Moore’s favor, polling and political analysts like Silver and Druke still see Ocasio-Cortez as the frontrunner if she enters the race.
The discussion reflects early speculation and recognizes the likelihood of a competitive primary with multiple prominent figures vying for attention.
Overall, Ocasio-Cortez’s youth, progressive credentials, and ability to generate excitement are seen as major assets, even as questions remain about her intentions.
Connor Walcott is the lead writer for Valuetainment.com. Follow Connor on X and look for him on VT’s “The Unusual Suspects.”
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