President Joe Biden may soon bow out of the 2024 presidential race in favor of a more viable candidate, a top JP Morgan Chase strategist is predicting. In a report published on New Year’s Day, Asset Management expert Michael Cembalest made several shocking forecasts for what the coming year might hold—including the end of the 81-year-old president’s reelection bid as early as March.
In JP Morgan’s latest edition of “Eye on the Market Outlook,” Cembalest presented his list of “The Top Ten Surprises for 2024,” made in honor of the late Byron Wein. Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy at JPMorgan, offered his predictions as “an exercise in thinking against the grain about what might happen in an industry dominated by consensus.”
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Among predictions that include backlash against driverless cars, the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine war, and the release of inhalable COVID vaccines, the asset manager also anticipates that Biden will not be chosen as the candidate for the Democratic National Committee.
As Cembalest wrote:
President Biden withdraws sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health reasons. Biden passes the torch to a replacement candidate named by the Democratic National Committee. Biden has a low approval rating for a President with ~10% job creation since his inauguration, although that figure is the by-product of his inauguration coinciding with the rollout of COVID vaccines and a reopening US economy.
Super Tuesday refers to the slate of state primary elections held on a Tuesday in late February or early March, during which roughly one-third of the delegates for the respective parties are up for grabs. With more than a dozen states voting simultaneously, the winners of Super Tuesday matchups are considered favorites to win their party’s nomination.
As the presidential race ramps up, Biden is facing declining support among key Democratic voter bases, including young, Black, and Hispanic voters. The latest polls show the incumbent trailing former President Donald Trump by a narrow margin—which only widens when third-party challenges like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are considered.
In almost every case, Biden’s age and mental acuity remain the primary factors, along with his failure on the border and the economy.
Were the election held today, Trump would win by at least three points, according to the latest numbers.
When the DNC convenes to choose its candidate, Biden will likely face distant challenges from Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips and self-help author Marianne Williamson, neither of whom have come close to rivaling Biden in the polls.
While Cembalest did not lay out Biden’s possible replacement, others have begun speculating about who might rise to the occasion.
Vice President Kamala Harris, the most obvious candidate, is even more unpopular, with a 55.5 percent disapproval rating according to recent FiveThirtyEight polling data.
Former First Lady Michelle Obama, a longshot who nevertheless has stirred rumors since the beginning of this election cycle, said that the outcome of 2024 “terrifies” her and “keeps her up at night.” Her statements during a podcast appearance on Monday have fueled further speculation.
Related: New Poll Shows Majority of Democrats Want Michelle Obama Over Biden for President
Michelle Obama says she is kept awake at night due to the upcoming election: "I am terrified about what could happen" pic.twitter.com/3kOCmJe9jB
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) January 8, 2024
In previous writings, Cembalest also floated California Governor Gavin Newsom as a hypothetical replacement for Biden.
Connor Walcott is a staff writer covering politics, culture, and business for Valuetainment.com. Follow Connor on X (Twitter).
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