Members of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland as well as bettors in London are wagering that Donald Trump will win the 2024 election according to Fred Kempe, CEO and President of the powerful Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, DC.

“There is not a conversation you have [at Davos], where I am not asked to handicap the election, and then handicap what the outcome of the election would be,” Kempe said (seemingly using “handicap” in the gambler’s sense, to mean ‘say it aint so,’ i.e. give them reasons why Trump might perform poorly so they can change their prediction). “People are calling it the ‘Trump Put.’ They’re hedging Trump.”

“And in the Middle East, the Gulf—they would like him back,” Kempe went on. “Europe is probably the place that’s most nervous, because they’ve said the most bad things about Trump, and Trump doesn’t forget that sort of stuff. And so Europe is the place that is the most concerned. But people are saying it’s a coin flip at this point [at Davos], 50-50 chance.”

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“[Ben Smith] thinks the Davos consensus right now is that former President Donald Trump becomes the president, and because it’s a Davos consensus he thinks it might actually be good for Biden,” said a CNBC host in reply, because the Davos consensus bet on Hillary in 2016.

“The betting line in London—you talk about all sorts of strange things in Davos—is 46 percent for Trump, and in the 30s somewhere for Biden,” Kempe said.But people still think there’s an outside possibility of something strange happening: because we live in such a volatile world, why wouldn’t the unexpected happen? Think about it: we didn’t predict COVID in 2020, in 2022 we didn’t predict Putin and Ukraine, we didn’t predict Hamas, we didn’t predict the Gaza War. Why shouldn’t there be something unpredictable that happens in US politics this year?”

According to CNBC, Donald Trump’s dramatic rise in the polls and his domination of the Iowa Caucuses was a big topic of discussion at the WEF summit during the week of January 14th-January 20th. The whole world was apparently watching as Trump trounced his opposition in record time.

In late December, Kempe joined CNBC’s “Squawk Box” to discuss the volatility of global markets, expressing his opinion that new and unpredictable international conflicts will continue to upset the stability of the economy in 2024 and 2025. He said 2024 will be a “uniquely consequential year from a geopolitical perspective,” citing the Ukraine War, the Israel-Hamas War, tensions in the South China Sea, and technological arms races—including AI, EVs, solar, and supply chains. He also said there is greater risk being taken into account by investors than there has been in a long time, as observers are keenly aware of how unpredictable the future is after the Russian invasion and the Hamas attack on October 7th.


Shane Devine is a writer covering politics, economics, and culture for Valuetainment. Follow Shane on X (Twitter).

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